Orbital Science, Antares, and NASA - The future of human space exploration after the loss at Wallops Island.

With the loss of the Oribital Sciences Corporation Antares rocket, and the Cygnus CRS-3 payload, at Wallops Island Flight Facility last evening, questions will again begin erupting about the viability and need for NASA. The loss of the spacecraft, the ~$250 million price tag, the 5,050 pounds of supplies, and more will all create an uproar about the wasted money and resources. If you want to know what a quarter billion dollar explosion looks like, here you go:

The official story is that, at T+6 seconds, the second first-stage engine failed before the entire airframe fell back onto the launch pad. Fortunately, there were no causalities. FYI, this is what the launch should look like:

(And if you are interested- this is the typical full mission profile for the Antares/Cygnus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RU-XS8pX77k )

Forgetting the above, NASA has had a slew of failures over the past decade or more. Let's see how many you remember:

• The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Satellite
• Demonstration for Autonomous Rendezvous Technology (DART) Spacecraft
• NASA Helios
• Genesis
• Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)
• The Mars Polar Lander (MPL)
• Deep Space 2
• The Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO)
• NOAA-19
• Columbia

Odds are, most people will remember the MCO, MPL, and Deep Space 2 (the MPL and MCO were in the same flight and all three were doing the 'smaller, faster, cheaper' policy time at NASA) and we all remember the Columbia disaster, but you probably wouldn't remember any others.

But what about NASA's successes? Do you remember any of those? How about this list:

• Man in Space
• Man oribits Earth
• Space walk
• Man on Moon
• Voyager explores the Solar System and now interstellar space
• Mars Rovers
• Redeavous with comet
• Mission to Pluto
• Rendeavous with Astroid
• SETI
• Numerous Earth mapping, scientific, and communication missions

Wow. That's quite a list too. But is the juice worth the squeeze?

NASA asks and answers the big questions of humanity. Space is truly the final frontier. Although some argue that we have not completely investigated the depths of Earth's oceans or its core, Space is literally infinite and we have only scratched the surface of what there is to learn. Space exploration also asks 'who are we?', 'where do we come from?', 'what's out there?', and 'are we alone?' Are there bigger questions mankind can ask themselves? Inherent in those four questions are everything we have ever learned about ourselves and all the questions that develop every time we chip away at the darkness. The answers to those questions are out there somewhere. Not to mention, the impact that those answers may have on our understanding of ourselves, our religions, and how we relate to the universe around us. Out there may even be the answer to who, what, or even is there a, God? Unless we keep looking, those questions may go unanswered.

BUT, its not just about the existential, there are other important reasons to continue space exploration. The most basic of which, is to encourage our future here on Earth. Space exploration requires people with the knowledge and skills to maintain our programs. During the boom of the late 50s and 60s, students began going into Math and Science programs. Although not all of them ended up at NASA, they helped to power and run the greatest period of economic growth in American history. Couldn't we use that again? And once we get out there, everyone can agree that there are untold riches in natural resources found in limited supply on earth but abundant in our local solar system. We just have to get to them!

There is a middle ground between the existential and material as well. There is one simple truth summed up by this picture:

Isn't that telling? Human beings, all of mankind, trillions and trillions of people, have all lived and died clinging briefly to the surface of this single blue marble in space. Only 12 men in history, over two and a half years, have left this planet and touched down on another heavenly body. Human kind is one asteroid, comet, pandemic,or other ELE from being wiped off the Universe's white board. All that would remain of humankind is a few trillion dollars of junk liberally distributed on and around the inner planets of the Sol (the name of our Sun) Star System. Every step we take out into the cosmos puts human survival, as a species, a little closer to a reality.

With all of this at stake, why WOULDN'T we continue with NASA's mission? There are really only two strong arguments. The first is, that we have enough problems down here on Earth. The US is facing a 17 trillion dollar debt. We need every dollar we can spare to address the issues we have in our nation here. Eisenhower, who once vetoed Apollo reminded Americans that "every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed." After all, isn't NASA costing us far too much money? Well... not so much. Critics argue that funding human space exploration siphons money from other programs such as helping the nation's poor. They say that NASA is a machine for spending money. They point to the missions above as proof of the waste of money (The missions above totaled about $2 billion- certainly nothing to sneeze at.) But, its important to keep a little perspective.

NASA has a budget of about $20 billion dollars a year. With that budget, NASA runs facilitties like Canaveral, Houston, Glenn Center, Ames, White Sands, JPL, Johnson, Langley, the IV and V Center, Plum Brook, their headquarters in DC, and the Wallops Facility where the accident recently occurred. They also fund the Shuttle replacedment program, the planetary missions, the ISS, their interactions with universities and schools, the telescopes, the communication, weather, and other satellites, as well as a host of other things. How to compare that? If you took the yearly budget for the Department of Defense and split it into 365 equal daily payments, NASA's $20 billion is about five days' worth of that a year. Here are some visuals:

Just so its clear, we put a man on the moon when NASA was given just over 5% of the entire Federal budget.

And one of my personal favorites:

When considering all other factors, $20 billion seems like a drop in the bucket of a trillion dollar budget expenditure.

But the infographics above beg an interesting question: if we had maintained that 60s spending on human space exploration, or if we had merely kept up with inflation where would we be?

The second question that critics make to funding NASA is: where are the results? What does our $20 billion per year get us? Well, a lot actually. NASA has given us billions of dollars in expenditure on stuff we either don’t know or care about- but that do exist. NASA technology helps my cell phone work, helps me text my friends and family, makes me able to access the internet from anywhere, let's me watch Video on Demand, helps me find my way when I'm lost and check the weather where I am and where I wish I was. That's not to mention that the miniaturized electronics developed because of the Apollo Program make all of that technology fit in the palm of my hand and in my pocket. And that's just technology, not to mention the hundreds of other advancements NASA has given us.

As a side note, they have also made us safer. We have made incredible advances in identifying and tracking Near Earth Objects- the type of objects that could impact earth can cause the extinction of mankind.

It's important, here again, to keep some perspective. Humans have always been about exploring. Monarchs of Europe put up money for voyages of discovery since the beginning of time. It’s how the New World was 'discovered' and explored; and it enabled the Westward expansion of the United States. However, while scientists tagged along on many of the gigs, but governments were foremost interested in making money. That continued in this country's history. President Jefferson sent Lewis & Clark into the wilderness to find a waterway to ship goods. Eisenhower’s national highway system made possible everything from transporting fresh produce to the social mobility of suburban living. The Defense Department gave us what would become the Internet. The same can be said about Space exploration. But its more than just about profit. When Charles Lindbergh was asked why he crossed the Atlantic, he never once answered that he wanted to win the $25,000 that Raymond Orteig offered for the first nonstop aircraft flight between New York and Paris. Burt Rutan and his backer, Paul Allen, certainly didn’t develop a private spacecraft to win the Ansari X-Prize for the $10 million in prize money. They spent twice as much as they made. Sergei Korolev and the team that launched Sputnik were not tasked by their government to be the first to launch an artificial satellite; they had to fight for the honor and the resources to do it. It's human nature to push back the darkness and see what lies beneath. For NASA, its bigger. Its the American way. “Go West young man,” has become go out there young people. People still strive to accomplish such things. They do so for reasons that are intuitive and compelling to all of us but that are not necessarily logical. They’re exactly the opposite of acceptable reasons, which are eminently logical but neither intuitive nor emotionally compelling.

But things do need to change. NASA needs to realize that its not just about doing it because its there to do, nor is it just about profit. Its also about image. NASA has to stop talking to itself. They have become the Microsoft of exploration, and it’s time for it to start thinking like Apple: declare big, high/risk and high/reward goals like explorers did. And don't do it quietly, shout it from the roof tops. Did you know that NASA has announced, and started to accomplish, these big goals? Landing spacecraft on asteroids, figure out how send humans to Mars, send rovers there to troll for the best real estate, and unveiling a new heavy-lift rocket design to get people out there. But once again, they failed in the image department (thinking like Microsoft instead of Apple) and named it the SLS. Not Andromeda, New Hope, or whatever; they named it the Space Launch System. NASA gives its rockets acronym names like they’re line items in a budget, which of course they are. We need NASA to become the engine for getting thousands of other companies, institutions, and individuals involved in space exploration and development. Well, to be fair, we need them to be vocal about the fact that they already are:

Today, NASA trudges along in their mission statement. From the NASA website:
NASA Today

NASA conducts its work in four principal organizations, called mission directorates:

• Aeronautics: manages research focused on meeting global demand for air mobility in ways that are more environmentally friendly and sustainable, while also embracing revolutionary technology from outside aviation.
• Human Exploration and Operations: focuses on International Space Station operations, development of commercial spaceflight capabilities and human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit.
• Science: explores the Earth, solar system and universe beyond; charts the best route of discovery; and reaps the benefits of Earth and space exploration for society.
• Space Technology: rapidly develops, innovates, demonstrates, and infuses revolutionary, high-payoff technologies that enable NASA's future missions while providing economic benefit to the nation.

The Future

Even with the retirement of the agency's space shuttles in 2011, NASA has a robust program of exploration, technology development and scientific research that will last for years to come. Here is what's next for NASA:

• NASA is designing and building the capabilities to send humans to explore beyond Earth orbit, including the development of the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System rocket, working toward a goal of sending astronauts to an asteroid in the coming decade and then to Mars by the 2030s.
• The International Space Station is fully staffed with a crew of six, and American astronauts will continue to live and work there in space 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Part of the U.S. portion of the station has been designated as a national laboratory, and NASA is committed to using this unique resource for wide-ranging scientific research
• U.S. commercial companies have begun delivering cargo to the space station, and commercial industry partners are working with NASA to develop new spacecraft and rockets to transport astronauts to and from low-Earth orbit, allowing NASA to focus its attention on the next steps into our solar system.
• NASA is researching ways to design and build aircraft that are safer, more fuel-efficient, quieter, and environmentally responsible. NASA also is part of the government team that is working to develop the Next Generation Air Transportation System, or NextGen, to be in place by the year 2025.
• NASA is conducting an unprecedented array of science missions that will seek new knowledge and understanding of Earth, the solar system and the universe.

So where does that leave us? Well its a decision for all of us, isn't it. If you ask me, there is no question. When I look up at the night sky full of stars, I feel small ( and it takes a lot to make me feel that way). I am forced to ask big questions, questions I don't know the answer to (another thing I don't like). I feel the yearning to go out there and explore. To find those answers that escape me. That's the existential side of me. The logical side of me, however, has the same answer, because all my concerns have been addressed. Where do you fall?

©Robert Cheek, 2014