North Korea: Past, Present and Future

"Our nuclear strength is a reliable war deterrent and a guarantee to protect our sovereignty."

       - Kim Jong-Un

North Korea, more correctly the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK, has once again come into the news recently. Kim Jong-il, the “Dear Leader” of the DPRK died of a heart attack on December 17, 2011. He, in the preceding years, had set his third son Kim Jong-un as the clear successor to his position. The world has waited and watched to see how the new Kim will lead his isolated nation. Even pop culture world weighed in:

Now, under Kim Jong-Un, the 59 year long armistice in Korea is over and the saber-rattling has reached the tipping point. What is to come, and how did we get here?

Korea is a 600-mile (966km) peninsula jutting out from China and Russia. North Korea occupies the area, slightly smaller than Pennsylvania, north of the 38th parallel. The country is almost completely covered by a series of north-south mountain ranges separated by narrow valleys. The Yalu River forms part of the northern border with China, and a DMZ stretches roughly along the 38^th parallel forming the Southern border.

The ancient history of the Korean peninsula can be traced to the Neolithic Age. The first agriculturally based settlements appeared around 6000 B.C. Throughout its history, Korea has been invaded, influenced, and fought over by its larger neighbors. Korea was alternatively a vassal state of China and Japan. When Western powers focused "gunboat" diplomacy on Korea in the mid-19th century, Korea's rulers adopted a closed-door policy, earning Korea the title of "Hermit Kingdom." Chinese influence dominated until the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895. Following Japan's victory, Korea was granted “independence.” By 1910, Korea had been annexed by Japan, which developed the country but never won over the Korean nationalists, who continued to agitate for independence. 

After Japan's surrender at the conclusion of World War II, the Korean peninsula was partitioned into two occupation zones, divided at the 38th parallel.  This division was meant to be temporary until the U.S., U.K., Soviet Union, and China could arrange a trusteeship administration. The USSR controlled the north, with the U.S. taking charge of the south. In December 1945, a conference convened in Moscow to discuss the future of Korea. In September 1947, with no solution in sight, the United States submitted the Korean question to the UN General Assembly. Initial hopes for a unified, independent Korea quickly evaporated as the politics of the Cold War developed. In 1948, the division was made permanent with the establishment of the separate regimes of North and South Korea. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) was established on May 1, 1948, with Kim Il Sung as president.
 

Hoping to unify the Koreas under a single Communist government, the North launched a surprise invasion of South Korea on June 25, 1950. In the following days, the UN Security Council condemned the attack and demanded an immediate withdrawal. The United Nations, in accordance with the terms of its Charter, engaged in its first collective action and established the UN Command (UNC), to which 16 member nations sent troops and assistance. Next to South Korea, the United States contributed the largest contingent of forces to this international effort. 

The North Korean invaders swiftly seized Seoul and surrounded the allied forces in the peninsula's southeast corner near Pusan. In a desperate bid to reverse the military situation, UN Commander Gen. Douglas MacArthur ordered an amphibious landing at Inchon on Sept. 15 and routed the North Korean army. MacArthur's forces pushed north across the 38th parallel, approaching the Yalu River. 

Prompted by this successful counteroffensive, Mao Tse-Tsung’s China entered the war, after large numbers of Chinese "People's Volunteers" intervened to assist the North, forcing the UN troops into a headlong retreat. Seoul was lost again, but later regained. Ultimately, the war stabilized near the 38th parallel in 1951 but dragged on for two years while negotiations took place. An armistice was achieved on July 27, 1953. 

On that date, at Panmunjom, the military commanders of the North Korean People's Army, the Chinese People's Volunteers, and the UNC signed an armistice agreement. Neither the United States nor South Korea is a signatory to the armistice per se, although both adhere to it through the UNC. No comprehensive peace agreement has replaced the 1953 armistice pact; thus, a condition of belligerency, or war, never ceased to exist. In 2013, the DPRK nullified the armistice and war, in spirit but not form, has returned. 

Relations between DPRK and ROK vacillate between warming and cooling.  In 1971, 1984, 1986, and 1989; relations warmed when North and South Korea held various talks whether through their respective charity organizations or through the governments themselves. Talks often revolve around joint activities (like hosting the 1988 Olympic Games), trade, or reunification of families and even the countries. However, the talks cooled when the ROK acted unilaterally (when they sought entry to the UN) or the DPRK no longer wished to talk and acted against the ROK and the West (like the 1987 bombing of KAL 858).

In September 1990, the first of eight prime minister-level meetings between North Korean and South Korean officials took place in Seoul. The prime ministerial talks resulted in two major agreements: the Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, Exchanges, and Cooperation (the "Basic Agreement") and the Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (the "Joint Declaration").

The Basic Agreement, signed on December 13, 1991, called for reconciliation and nonaggression and established four joint commissions. These commissions (on reconciliation, military affairs, economic exchanges and cooperation, and social and cultural exchange) were to work out the specifics for implementing the basic agreement. Subcommittees to examine specific issues were created, and liaison offices were established in Panmunjom, but in the fall of 1992 the process came to a halt because of rising tension over North Korea's nuclear program.

The Joint Declaration on denuclearization was signed on December 31, 1991. It forbade both sides to test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy, or use nuclear weapons and forbade the possession of nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities. A procedure for inter-Korean inspection was to be organized and a North-South Joint Nuclear Control Commission (JNCC) was mandated to verify the denuclearization of the peninsula.

On January 30, 1992, the D.P.R.K. finally signed a nuclear safeguards agreement with the IAEA, as it had pledged to do in 1985 when becoming party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This safeguards agreement allowed IAEA inspections to begin in June 1992. In March 1992, the JNCC was established in accordance with the Joint Declaration, but subsequent meetings failed to reach agreement on the main issue of establishing a bilateral inspection regime.

Kim Il Sung's death on July 8, 1994, introduced a period of uncertainty, as his son, Kim Jong Il, assumed the mantle of leadership. Kim Jong Il continued his father’s vacillation between open talks and saber-rattling. Kim has regularly used threats and hostile acts to try to wring aid from the international community, but it was difficult to decipher how he expected to accomplish his aims, economic aid and a safeguard against U.S. attack, through such brinkmanship.

In Jan. 2002, President Bush described North Korea as part of an “axis of evil.” Such open hostility marked a dramatic shift in U.S. policy toward North Korea from the Clinton administration's policy of engagement. Meetings between officials from the U.S., North Korea, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan in 2003, 2004, and 2005 ended in deadlock. 

In July 2006, North Korea launched seven missiles: the long-range Taepodong-2 missile (which failed) and six medium-range weapons. It was North Korea's first major weapons test in eight years. North Korea again sparked international outrage in October, when it tested a nuclear weapon. President Bush called the test a “threat to international peace and security” and called for sanctions against North Korea. 

For the first time in 56 years, trains passed between North and South Korea in May 2007. While the event was mostly symbolic, it was, at the time, considered an important step toward reconciliation. In Oct. 2007, Kim Jong Il and South Korean president Roh Moo Hyun met for their second ever inter-Korean summit. The leaders forged a deal to work together on several economic projects and agreed to move toward signing a treaty that would formally end the Korean War. 

Two more weapons tests followed: an underground nuclear test and a short-range missile test. The nuclear test was North Korea's second. International monitoring organizations said that it was more powerful than the previous blast, three years ago. 

In March 2010, the South Korean warship Cheonan was sunk in an area of the Yellow Sea that's in dispute with North Korea. Forty-six sailors were killed. Conditions further deteriorated in November when North Korea attacked Yeonpyeong, a small island in South Korea located near the maritime border between the North and South, killing two soldiers and two civilians and leveling entire neighborhoods. Many speculated that North Korea's provocative actions were intended to boost the credibility and prominence of Kim Jong-Un, Kim Jong-Il's likely successor. 

At the Korean Workers Party conference in September 2010, President Kim promoted his third son, Kim Jong-Un, to the rank of four-star general, gave him a seat on the party's Central Committee, and appointed him as vice chairman the party's military commission, paving the way for him to take over as president. Little is known about Un, who is in his late 20s, other than he attended a private boarding school in Switzerland. 

Kim Jong-Il died of a heart attack on December 17, 2011. The "Dear Leader" had been in power since 1994 and presided over his isolated country through a devastating flood that claimed between 2 million and 3 million citizens in the 1990s and left the economy in shambles. He taunted the U.S. and the international community with his dogged pursuit of nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-Un succeeded his father and was given the title "Great Successor." Kim's death and Kim Jong-Un's ascendance put the world on high alert as a power struggle or an attempt by Kim Jong-Un to prove his mettle could create a dangerous situation in an already unstable country that has long harbored nuclear ambitions.

There was a sense of relief, as well as caution, in late February when North Korea announced it was suspending uranium enrichment at its processing facility in Yongbyon and halting tests of weapons and long-range missiles. In exchange, the U.S. said it would resume food aid to the impoverished nation. Observers speculated that Kim Jong-Un might be attempting to win the favor of North Koreans with the infusion of food or beginning to chart a new path in foreign relations. Nevertheless, North Korea has made such promises in the past only to later renege. 

On April 12, the country attempted to launch a rocket carrying a satellite into orbit, but the rocket blew up seconds after the launch. The failure was an embarrassment to Kim Jong-Un, who had just been honored with two new titles: leader of the national defense commission, the nation's most powerful government agency; and first secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea. The launch coincided with the celebration of the 100th birthday of North Korea's founder and Kim Jong-un's grandfather, Kim Il-sung. In response to the attempt, the U.S. suspended 240,000 tons of food aid to North Korea. 

North Korea's next attempt to put a satellite into orbit was not a failure. The successful launch of the rocket on December 12 indicated that the country was inching closer toward developing the expertise to build an intercontinental ballistic missile. It also boosted Kim Jong-un's credibility both domestically and internationally, illustrating his seriousness in advancing the country's military capabilities. The launch took the world by surprise and was followed by another round of UN sanctions that were supported by China, which normally opposes such measures. Less than a week later, astronomers reported that the satellite was spinning in orbit, a sign that it had failed post-launch.

In Feb. 2013, North Korea said it had detonated a third nuclear bomb. World leaders, scientists, and intelligence officials rushed to determine if the bomb was fueled by uranium or plutonium. Plutonium was used in earlier tests in 2006 and 2009, and officials said if uranium powered the bomb then it was a signal that North Korea was on its way to developing a larger and more powerful arsenal. The explosion was small compared to those detonated by China in the 1960s and the U.S. in 1945 but larger than North Korea's previous tests. In response to the test, the UN Security Council unanimously passed another round of strict sanctions against North Korea. In a first, China was involved in drafting the sanctions. The sanctions came shortly after the U.S. and South Korea began annual military drills near the north-south border. Reacting to the sanctions and the exercises, President Kim promised to launch “a pre-emptive nuclear strike” against the U.S. and South Korea and said he had voided the 1953 armistice that ended the war between North and South Korea. Kim's threats were mostly dismissed as bluster but were nevertheless the most menacing in years by any leader. He continued his bellicose tone in March and shut down not only Red Cross hotlines between North and South Korea but also military hotlines. At a rare plenary meeting of the Central Committee, Kim said North Korea would continue to develop its nuclear weapons program despite sanctions, saying the weapons "“are neither a political bargaining chip nor a thing for economic dealings." 

In March, the US responded to the growing threat from North Korea by continuing the military drills with South Korea, deploying F-22 stealth fighter jets and B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region in a show of its military strength. The U.S. also increased the number of ground-based ballistic missile interceptors in California and Alaska. 

The question then stands, what is to happen now? 

I think it would be impossible for anyone to predict the behavior of any leader of North Korea. Although the leadership basks in relative wealth and has travelled beyond its borders (Un was educated in Switzerland), it has been the nation’s policy to be unpredictable. Un’s grandfather Kim Il-Sung fluctuated between Soviet and Chinese spheres, playing each against the other for his own benefit. Kim Jong-Il made the same policy, now bouncing between an active member of the international community and being an isolated, unknown entity. It seems that Kim Jong-Un has learned those lessons of his father and repeated them.

Reports from the DPRK read straight out of 1984. The government rewrites history as it sees fit and the people, victims of the leading family’s personality cult, follow in lock step. Any divisiveness is met with purges. Millions gather to disparage the West and raise up the Great Successor as a demigod. 

I have previously mentioned a personal conversation that I had with former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter. In that conversation, he stressed that North Korea was far greater a threat than Iraq. The DPRK is a known WMD proliferator, or was under Jong-Il, and their military development is the number one priority. In 2010, Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford professor and former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, said that during a visit to North Korea, officials gave him a tour of a uranium-enrichment facility that contained 2,000 centrifuges that can be converted to produce nuclear weapons. Hecker described the facility as sophisticated and "ultra modern." 

But let’s separate fact from fiction. Question number one: does the DPRK have nuclear weapons? My study of the subject suggests that this is a fact. Although their first weapon, likely a plutonium bomb, was small and relatively unsuccessful; it has been theorized that the more recent bombs were uranium, had higher yields, and, although less powerful than Hiroshima, is still a powerful weapon. The important thing to keep in mind, when it comes to using these weapons, is size. Below are two pictures. The first is a picture of the Trinity Test device, America’s first nuclear weapon. The second is a picture of “Fat Man,” one of the United State’s first atomic weapons. The scale is important here. These weapons are much larger than a man and exponentially heavier. The DPRK has no ability to deliver a weapon of this type, as they possess few, if any, heavy bombers and their rockets don’t have the payload capacity.

Question number two: Can the DPRK attack the US? This is where the issue gets cloudy. It is clear that North Korean rocket technology has greatly advanced. Their short, medium, and intermediate range rockets have had multiple successive tests, but it’s unclear whether their targeting programs would allow for accurate use of the weapons. Typically, they program the weapons to splash down in the Pacific. In any event, their rockets could reach South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and other US allies in East and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. They could also attach US forces, including permanent bases, in these countries. Arguably, the medium range rockets may even be able to reach Guam or other US Pacific territories, and maybe even the Hawaiian Islands. However, reports from their long range rocket tests have been less successful. They have had multiple failures and even later examination of the “success” of launching a satellite shows trajectory problems in the crucial third stage. The likelihood that they now possess accurate ICBM technology is slim to none. Assuming they could even reach the continental US, its unlikely that the targeting would be accurate, and they certainly could not carry the payload of their current WMD size. (Much like other technology, nuclear weapons can get smaller and lighter as the program progresses in success.)

Question number three: Would the US go to war in South Korea if North Korea doesn’t attack us? The short answer is yes. The Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea, which was signed October 1, 1953 and later ratified by both countries states, in pertinent part, ARTICLE III, Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties in territories now under their respective administrative control, or hereafter recognized by one of the Parties as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the other, would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes. Further, it states, ARTICLE IV, The Republic of Korea grants, and the United States of America accepts, the right to dispose United States land, air and sea forces in and about the territory of the Republic of Korea as determined by mutual agreement.  (Read the entire agreement here.) Basically, the United States has agreed to come to the aid of South Korea is unjustly attacked by any other force. The one caveat is the clause “in accordance with its constitutional processes.” This means, for the US, Congress would have to approve of the use of force. See my previous post on Iraq to how difficult that may be.

Question number four: Would the DPRK be able to continue a war against the US and allies? This is another tricky question. Technically, the DPRK has the fourth largest armed forces in the world. However, a lesson can be shown by the previous fourth largest military: Iraq. Although North Korea has a large army, in terms of soldiers and machines, the majority of their troops are likely to be malnourished. When compared, they would not be on par with the average American soldier. They are using a mixture of technology from WWII through, possibly, even modern weaponry. They do have something that perhaps Iraq did not. They were raised in the juche and personality cult of North Korea. The military of Iraq was a mixture of ethnicities and religions. The DPRK armed forces are homogenous in ethnicity and religion. They are likely to fight to the death for the Great Successor. You must imagine their forces to be, in passion, far more like those of the Japanese Empire than any other previous enemy of the US. While the US, and allies, were able to roll through the Iraq military, and take thousands of willing prisoners along the way; there would likely be far fewer prisoners and more bloodshed to make progress. Moreover, in the scenario where the DPRK is the aggressor, the US would have no staging ground as they did in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia before the Iraq invasion. It would be necessary to throw any available troops into the fight, almost haphazardly. Under the worst of circumstances, an amphibious and air assault may be necessary to liberate South Korea. 

I would be happy to answer any other questions people have, please just post in the comments below. To summarize, here are my thoughts. It is almost North Korean policy to “rattle their sabers.” Like a petulant child, the leaders of the DPRK think that the only way to get attention and respect is to intimate their impressive military and nuclear capability should be feared. In the coming months, I will post about the dangers of our current nuclear policy and how it encourages proliferation, rather than limiting it. However, I don’t think that there should be any big concern about an attack from North Korea on either US or South Korean forces. North Korea gains nothing from such an action, and risks complete annihilation. However, they can gain something from making threats and then backing off. Kim Jong-Un is a new leaders, and he needs to consolidate power in the face of continuing food shortages and overall poverty. This is the way he has chosen to do it. Express strength, make threats, and hope to bring everyone else to the table; only to do it again later.

I must stress that North Korea remains a potent force and pre-emptive action is not only unnecessary, but looking to history, would be more detrimental than good. Hopefully, our leaders have learned that lesson and will use restraint with DPRK threats. However, we must also be wary of rewarding bad behavior and using appeasement to diffuse conflict. History also shows that this does more harm than good. It is certainly a tight line to walk, and hopefully the US and UN will do so.

© Robert Cheek, 2013